Basic Income and the Future of Jobs

Universal basic income has emerged as a major issue in politics. The controversy began when a leading presidential contender from the ruling party argued that all citizens should receive universal basic income regardless of their assets or income. The discussion has since expanded beyond universal basic income to include universal housing and even universal loans.

The emergence of artificial intelligence has added weight to arguments for the necessity of universal basic income. There is widespread concern that the Fourth Industrial Revolution will bring an era of mass unemployment as AI and machines replace human labor. The logic is that if labor can no longer serve as a source of income, then the state must guarantee universal basic income to support citizens’ basic standard of living. As COVID-19 has accelerated contactless services and automation, while unemployment has increased, these claims have gained greater plausibility.

Skeptical views of the future have always accompanied human history. In the 1890s, predictions were rampant that humanity would meet its end because of horse manure. Horses were the main mode of transportation in New York, and 100,000 horses produced 2,000 tons of manure a day—nearly 60,000 tons a month.

With horse manure piled up across the streets and gases from it making it difficult even to breathe, it was hard for anyone to dispute commentators’ prediction that by 1930 manure would be stacked as high as the third floor of buildings. Fortunately, humanity was not destroyed by horse manure. The automobile created by Henry Ford replaced horses and resolved those fears at once.

The debate over universal basic income likewise began as negative views of the future were amplified by the emergence of unfamiliar technology. Anxiety that the new and powerful technology of AI may replace human labor is a natural concern. This anxiety follows the same pattern as many other end-of-the-world scenarios, including famine, planetary collisions, floods, global warming, and oil depletion.

In the end, humanity has built a better future through technological progress. The doomsday scenarios did not materialize. In the United States in the 1960s, the issue of universal basic income was also raised amid fears that factory automation would eliminate jobs. But instead of jobs disappearing because of machines, they increased and became more specialized.

Just as humanity did not meet its end because of horse manure, and just as new occupations such as taxi drivers and bus drivers emerged in place of coachmen, it is entirely reasonable to predict that the advent of AI will also create new professions and generate more jobs.

If the state were to provide universal basic income and housing without people having to work hard, and even offer universal loans at low interest rates in emergencies, then all citizens could live comfortably and without worry. But how many people truly believe that such a dreamlike moment will ever come?

Implementing a universal basic income system would require enormous financial resources. It is said that even paying just 300,000 won per person would require resources amounting to more than half of GDP by 2060, yet no concrete plan has been presented for how such funding would be secured. Since there appears to be no realistic solution, the proposal is criticized as populism.

It is only natural to feel anxious about a future that has not yet arrived. But rather than expecting an unworkable universal basic income out of a skeptical view of the future, it would be wiser to believe—as human history has consistently shown—that the emergence of AI can enable humanity to live more advanced lives, and to strive to adapt to change.

Eun-kyung Kwak, Head of the Corporate Culture Office, Center for Free Enterprise (CFE)

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Original title: 기본소득과 일자리의 미래

Author: Eun-kyung Kwak

Date: 2021-05-09

Source: https://www.cfe.org/bbs/bbsDetail.php?cid=press&idx=23699