What Do the People Want from the President?

How far can President Yoon Suk Yeol’s approval rating fall? Just three months into his term, poll after poll shows that only around 3 out of 10 voters view the president’s handling of state affairs positively.

It is a full-blown crisis. The fact that nearly 7 out of 10 voters have already decided to “break up” with President Yoon Suk Yeol is a grave situation. Barely two months have passed, yet his approval rating looks like that of a president with only two months left in office.

From President Yoon’s inauguration on May 10 through July 31, the date of the latest survey, a total of 75 polls were registered with the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission. Of these, 56 were ARS surveys and 19 were interviewer-administered surveys. In short, the president’s approval ratings in those 75 polls can be summed up as a dramatic reversal in just one month. His positive job approval ranged from “a high of 56.3% to a low of 28%.” The high came in a May 27–28 poll, roughly two weeks after his inauguration, and the low came in a July 26–28 poll, during the final week of July.

Negative evaluations of the president’s handling of state affairs ranged from “a low of 36.1% to a high of 68%.” The low was recorded in a May 30–June 1 survey, around the same period when his approval rating was at its highest. By contrast, the highest negative rating for the president came in a July 30–31 survey.

Across the 75 polls, the average “positive vs. negative evaluation of the president’s performance” was 42.3% vs. 49.7%, meaning that nearly half of all voters were, on balance, negative about the president. That is because, over time, positive evaluations of his performance steadily declined while negative evaluations rose sharply.

More specifically, the president’s approval rating rose through the third week after his inauguration, averaging “50.8%–51.8%–54.7%,” with the third week marking the peak. After that, positive evaluations of his performance continued to decline, with weekly averages of “52.9%–51.0%–48.7%,” reaching the level of his presidential election vote share by the sixth week of his term.

Afterward, the president’s approval rating averaged “46.2%–44.3%–35.9%,” and by the ninth week after inauguration it had fallen below the 40% line. Over the past three weeks, positive evaluations of his performance posted weekly averages of “33.5%–32.9%–31.7%,” and last week there was even a survey showing it had dropped below 30%.

Meanwhile, negative evaluations of the president’s performance exceeded an average of 50% for the first time in the ninth week after inauguration. Before that, the average negative rating had stayed in the upper 30% to upper 40% range. After fluctuating below 50%, negative evaluations averaged “61.9%–63.3%–63.2%” beginning in the tenth week.

From his inauguration through last week, President Yoon Suk Yeol’s approval rating ranged from “a high of 55% to a low in the low 30% range.” A 50%+ positive evaluation of his performance would be ideal, but at a minimum he needs an approval rating of 40%+. At the very least, he must preserve and further expand the winning coalition from the presidential election.

Looking at ideological orientation surveys conducted this year, the overall distribution was generally “conservatives in the low 30% range, moderates in the low 30% range, and progressives in the upper 20% range.” Given that, the average presidential approval rating of 31.7% shown in six surveys last week indicates that support for President Yoon has narrowed to little more than his minimum core base.

From December 31, 2021, through March 2 of this year during the presidential election, a total of 260 polls were registered with the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission. Support for a change of government, which was included in most of those 260 polls, averaged 51.6%.

Accordingly, President Yoon’s 48.6% vote share in the presidential election was the result of the conservative support base in the low 30% range being joined by a little more than half of the moderate bloc. An average presidential approval rating of 31.7% threatens the conservatives’ Maginot line of 24%. If the 24% threshold—equal to the vote share won by the Liberty Korea Party in the 2017 presidential election—is breached, it would mean that even the core conservative support base has decided to “break up.”

Many people read the recent 모습 of the People Power Party, the cabinet, and the presidential office as a return to “the old Liberty Korea Party all over again.” Whether it becomes “the old Liberty Korea Party all over again” or remains the People Power Party that won two consecutive nationwide elections will be decided by moderates. The decline in the president’s approval rating was led by voters in their 20s and 30s, those in their 50s, and residents of the Seoul metropolitan area. Moderates are decisive for support for Yoon Suk Yeol, because he has no “concrete support base.”

This is the innate limitation embedded in the “reflective” nature of Yoon Suk Yeol’s politics. Recognizing himself as a “tool for change of government” should have been the starting point of “Yoon Suk Yeol’s politics and power.” That is why “the success of Yoon Suk Yeol’s power and politics presupposes Yoon Suk Yeol’s sense of tension and humility.”

The current administration has cast aside humility and vigilance of its own accord. Arrogance, illusion, and a swaggering strongman style of leadership have led to “self-inflicted losses.” It is a picture of power tripping over its own feet. The swift appointment of a special inspector general would symbolize power’s sense of tension and humility.

If one dares to venture a forecast despite the risk, positive evaluations of the president’s handling of state affairs are likely, for the time being, to move sideways with a slight weakness. People still want to believe that “there is still time for opportunity.” It is only on August 17 that he will have “barely reached his first 100 days in office.”

That is why the Liberation Day address is so important. The Liberation Day address must become a second inaugural address. It must be a speech that shows a change in the president’s own perceptions and attitude. The core of the address is the presentation of a governing vision, policy tasks, and personnel appointments. A governing vision and policy tasks define the purpose of Yoon Suk Yeol’s administration.

If that governing vision and those policy tasks are clear, there would be no such fiasco as the “school entry age of 5” proposal, which took only three days from announcement to effective withdrawal.

With a humble attitude, he must focus on presenting a governing vision and making personnel appointments

Despite the president’s “unprecedented” ultra-fast plunge in approval ratings, no one has stepped forward to take responsibility. Someone has to open the way for personnel renewal. Power that is intoxicated by the sweetness of power, yet has never really thought about what to do with it or how to use it, fails. In the end, it comes down to people.

A personnel reshuffle is central to the message of reform in state administration. Whether for an individual or a team, power needs a coordinator. This is about the division of roles within power. The coordinators of power must not be people pursuing their own political ambitions, but people who understand the purpose of power and put the success of Yoon Suk Yeol’s administration first.

People’s thoughts about the president are complex. That is because they worry not about his failure alone, but about the failure of our community as a whole. Right now, the president stands at a crossroads between restoring trust and losing it. The most important thing is people’s trust in the president.

Only the president can calm public sentiment, which is moving from concern to irritation and then toward anger. I look forward to the president’s Liberation Day address.

Myungho Park, Professor of Political Science, Dongguk University

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Original title: 국민이 대통령에게 바라는 것은?

Author: Myeong-ho Park

Date: 2022-08-23

Source: https://www.cfe.org/bbs/bbsDetail.php?cid=press&idx=24916